As early as November, Circana was anticipating robust growth in the beauty sector for 2023. Now, as the holiday shopping season comes to a close, we have a slightly clearer sense of the category dynamics across fragrance, makeup and skin care.
According to a new analysis from Circana's Natallia Bambiza, "Makeup is the strongest performing category in the U.S. prestige beauty market this year," yet skin care could still eclipse the category when year-end totals come in.
In fact, the skin care sector has outpaced makeup growth since May 2023. That said, Spate data reportedly points to a TikTok beauty zeitgeist dominated by makeup, which could signal enough strength for color to come out on top.
Because the largest share of U.S. prestige beauty sales typically fall in the fourth quarter, these numbers matter. Bambiza offers some historical perspective: in the same period of 2022, fragrance and makeup enjoyed the biggest Q4 vs Q3 bump in both the mass and prestige sectors.
While fragrance won't be the top prestige beauty performer in 2023, the category is performing very well this season, per a separate analysis from Circana's Jacquelyn Wenskus.
The analyst notes, "Fragrance sales were off to a strong start in the fourth quarter (Q4), with dollar sales through December 2 [2023] up 12%, compared to 2022, and already almost on par with total Q4 sales generated in 2022 ... [W]e can confidently expect that fragrance will outperform itself this quarter, pointing to a very happy holiday for the fragrance market in 2023."
Notably, online fragrance shopping increased almost twice as fast as brick-and-mortar in Q4, as of December 2. Wenskus notes, "This channel shift was evident nearly every week, but to an even greater extent during the Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday weeks."
Per the analysis, "sets drove approximately one-third of fragrance sales." Earlier this year, Circana noted that Gen Z, a major driver of fragrance sales in 2023, has been partial to sets:
Value was the watch word, giving a boost to gift sets (up 26% year-over-year), higher concentration fragrances and mini sizes (accounting for 38% of total juices sold), the latter of which allows shoppers a taste of pricier scents at an accessible price point.
That said, "sales of juices, or traditional fragrance bottles, are also faring well and, unique to Q4, luxury fragrance brands are gaining more traction among consumers," per Wenskus.
As with makeup and skin care, Q4 results are critical for full-year prestige fragrance sales, only more so. In fact, in 2022 49% of Q4 fragrance sales took place in just the three weeks prior to Christmas.
The strong growth trajectory beauty in North America isn't limited to the United States. In fact, Circana Canada retail account specialist Mark Potter points out that, as of November 2023, Canada's beauty dollar sales have jumped 18% year-over-year and "47% compared to the same period in 2021."
The fastest-growing sectors across all categories tracked by Circana in Canada are skin care, makeup and fragrances. Even personal care appliances make the top 10 list at number six, while hair care lands at number nine.
Potter explains, "Economic stress can make consumers purchase less overall, but it also seems to encourage spending in feel-good products within their reach."
